Emerging Paradigm · Targeted Biologics · M31 Score: 4.4/5.0

Peak Suppression

The FDA's peptide crackdown is the suppression signal M31 looks for. When regulatory response protects revenue rather than patients, the pattern is clear.

M31 Capital · February 2026
4.4
M31 Conviction Score
INVEST
M31 Verdict (Split)
Mixed
Clinical Stage
PEAK
Suppression Signal

In January 2025, the FDA restricted compounded peptides — including BPC-157, thymosin alpha-1, and others widely used in functional medicine. The stated rationale was safety. The structural rationale was protection of pharmaceutical revenue. GLP-1 agonists alone represent a $100B+ market.

The Split Strategy

M31's assessment requires a split: invest in GLP-1 dominators and companies with legitimate FDA peptide pipelines; avoid compounding pharmacies and grey-market distribution. The GLP-1 revolution validates the entire peptide thesis at massive scale — Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro demonstrating systemic health improvements far beyond metabolic indication.

M31 Five Signals Framework
Suppression SignalPeak — FDA crackdown protecting pharma revenue
Scientific UnlockGLP-1 data overwhelming; BPC-157 preclinical strong
AntifragilityCrackdown driving demand to legitimate channels
Pattern AlignmentCannabis suppression → legalization → institutionalization
Convergence IndexScience + manufacturing + consumer demand + GLP-1 proof-of-concept
Invest
GLP-1 Ecosystem
Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly dominate. Second-gen oral GLP-1s next wave.
Invest
FDA Pipeline Companies
Companies with formal clinical peptide programs.
Invest
Peptide Manufacturing
API/CDMO infrastructure. Picks-and-shovels thesis.
Avoid
Compounding Pharmacies
Regulatory risk too high. Grey-market models will be squeezed.
M31 Assessment

Peak Suppression Predicts the Unlock

Peptides score 4.4/5.0 with a required split strategy. The GLP-1 proof-of-concept validates the entire peptide thesis. INVEST in legitimate pipeline companies and manufacturing infrastructure.