I. The Method: Three Questions
In DeFi, the question "What is money?" predicted the entire ecosystem's development. The same method works for medicine—but the domain requires not one question, but three, each generating its own evolutionary replay.
The "What is money?" framework works because it starts with a fundamental question about what something is, studies how it evolved historically, identifies a binary moment that determines which future unfolds, and then uses the historical sequence as a predictive model.
Medicine is more complex than finance because it involves three overlapping paradigm shifts happening simultaneously. Each requires its own fundamental question:
- "What is healing?" Is the body a machine to be fixed, or software to be reprogrammed? CRISPR and mRNA proved it's software. This means the entire medical infrastructure must be rebuilt around programmable biology.
- "How do treatments enter the mainstream?" New treatments follow a deterministic adoption sequence. Cannabis mapped this path completely. Psilocybin is replaying the identical sequence—compressed. Every step is predictable.
- "What is health?" Is health the absence of disease, or the continuous optimization of biological systems? The shift from reactive sick care to proactive health optimization requires entirely new infrastructure.
Each question generates a different evolutionary replay. Together, they create a comprehensive investment map for healthcare's transformation.
II. What Is Healing?
For 5,000 years, medicine treated the body as a machine—broken parts to be fixed, invading pathogens to be killed. A new answer is emerging: the body is programmable, and healing means rewriting the instructions.
The traditional answer to "What is healing?" has been: eliminate the thing causing harm. Cut out the tumor. Kill the bacteria. Block the receptor. Suppress the symptom. This is "body as hardware"—if a part breaks, you fix or replace it.
But starting with the discovery of DNA's structure in 1953 and accelerating through the Human Genome Project (2003), CRISPR (2012), and mRNA platforms (2020), a fundamentally different answer emerged: the body is a set of instructions that can be read, edited, and reprogrammed.
III. The Binary: Hardware or Software?
Like "one currency or many?" for DeFi, the binary question for medicine is: "Is the body hardware or software?" The answer determines which future unfolds.
| If Hardware | If Software |
|---|---|
| Surgery, prosthetics, organ transplants | Gene therapy, mRNA, cell reprogramming |
| One-size-fits-all drugs | Personalized, genotype-specific treatments |
| Treat after breakdown | Predict and prevent from the code |
| Blockbuster pharma model persists | Entire pharma infrastructure rebuilt |
| Incremental improvement | Paradigm shift—new ecosystem required |
CRISPR and mRNA Answered the Question
CRISPR-Cas9 (2012) proved you can edit the body's code. mRNA vaccines (2020) proved you can program the body to produce its own medicine. Just as Ethereum proved currencies are programmable (triggering the entire DeFi ecosystem), CRISPR and mRNA proved the body is programmable—triggering the need for an entirely new medical infrastructure.
Once the body is proven programmable, every downstream need becomes inevitable: better code readers (sequencing), better code editors (gene editing), delivery mechanisms (LNPs, viral vectors), personalized diagnostics, AI interpretation, manufacturing at scale.
This is DeFi's logic applied to biology: one foundational capability creates the conditions for an entire ecosystem.
IV. 5,000 Years of Medicine → 20 Years of Biotech
Traditional medicine evolved through a deterministic sequence. Programmable biology is replaying that sequence—compressed.
| Primitive | Traditional Medicine | Programmable Biology |
|---|---|---|
| Observation | Hippocratic method (~400 BCE) | Genomic sequencing (2003) |
| Anatomy / Structure | Vesalius, dissection (~1543) | Proteomics, structural biology |
| Causal Theory | Germ theory (1860s) | Genetic basis of disease (2000s) |
| Targeted Treatment | Antibiotics (1928) | Gene therapy / CRISPR (2012) |
| Programmable Platform | — | mRNA platform (2020) |
| Precision Tools | Microsurgery, imaging | Base editing, prime editing (2020s) |
| Delivery Systems | Pills, IV, injection | LNPs, AAVs, exosomes (emerging) |
| Manufacturing | Pharma factories | Cell manufacturing at scale (emerging) |
| Diagnostics | Blood tests, imaging | Liquid biopsy, multi-omics (emerging) |
| AI Interpretation | Doctor's judgment | AI-powered diagnosis (emerging) |
| Continuous Monitoring | Annual checkups | Wearables, biosensors (early) |
| Regulatory Adaptation | FDA drug approval (1938+) | New frameworks needed (missing) |
| Payment Models | Fee-for-service insurance | Outcomes-based payment (missing) |
V. How Do Treatments Enter the Mainstream?
This is the most directly actionable question. New treatments follow a deterministic adoption sequence. Study the precedent, map where the new treatment is in the sequence, and predict what comes next.
Cannabis mapped this path completely—from indigenous use through criminalization, through state-level legalization, through banking exclusion, through infrastructure buildout, toward federal acceptance. Psilocybin is replaying the identical sequence, compressed.
The key insight: the adoption sequence isn't random. Each step creates the conditions for the next, just as DEXs created the conditions for lending in DeFi. And critically, you can identify the infrastructure needs at each stage before they're built.
VI. The Cannabis Template
Cannabis provides the complete adoption playbook—every stage from traditional use to mainstream acceptance, mapped over decades.
Cannabis didn't legalize because attitudes magically changed. It legalized when there was more money to be made selling it legally than opposing it. Once governments could tax it, once corporations could profit from it, the incentive structure flipped.
Same pattern as Bitcoin and banks: "No, no, no" → ETF launches → "Now we get product around this." Same pattern every time. Track when the money incentive flips.
VII. The Psilocybin Replay
Psilocybin is following the cannabis path step by step—but compressed. Each stage from the cannabis template is playing out in the identical sequence.
Cannabis → Psilocybin: The Predictive Map
Using cannabis as the template, specific infrastructure needs become predictable at each stage:
VIII. What Is Health?
The healthcare system was assumed to be the better path. It is now becoming the more painful—too expensive, not holistic, siloed, and incentivized away from the patient. The assumption is ripe for change.
The current healthcare system answers "What is health?" with: the absence of disease. You're healthy until you're sick. Then you enter the system, get diagnosed, get treated, get billed. This is reactive, episodic, and standardized.
But a fundamentally different answer is emerging: health is the continuous optimization of biological systems. You're not "healthy" or "sick"—you're on a spectrum, and the goal is to maintain optimal function, not just avoid breakdown.
| Sick Care (Current) | Health Optimization (Emerging) |
|---|---|
| Wait until symptomatic | Monitor continuously |
| Diagnose → treat → bill | Predict → prevent → optimize |
| One-size-fits-all protocols | Personalized to your biology |
| Doctor as gatekeeper | Individual as owner |
| Pharma: chronic management | Root cause resolution |
| Insurance: pays for intervention | Pays for outcomes |
| Siloed specialists | Integrated systems view |
The Logical Chain
Once you accept health = continuous optimization (not absence of disease), each subsequent need becomes inevitable:
The Technology Unlocks
Multiple technological breakthroughs are converging to make this shift inevitable—just as smartphones + broadband + GPS converged to enable ride-sharing and food delivery:
- AI + Biomarker Data AI can now find patterns in biological data that humans can't—identifying disease risk years before symptoms. "Did AI or technology that just came into existence unlock something we didn't have before? That's another trigger."
- Continuous Biosensors Wearables measuring heart rate, glucose, sleep, HRV, blood oxygen. Continuous data streams replacing annual snapshots.
- Affordable Genomics $100 genome sequencing. Personalized risk profiles. Pharmacogenomics—knowing which drugs work for YOUR genotype.
- Natural Compound Discovery "The healing properties of bee stings for breast cancer. There's algae that can turn around diabetes. Especially with AI, they're finding things in nature." AI-accelerated natural compound discovery is unlocking alternatives to synthetic pharma.
- Frequency & Energy Medicine Red light therapy, transcranial magnetic stimulation, frequency-based treatments. Evidence base growing. "There's whole frequency stuff. There's alternative medicine. There's something there."
IX. The Suppression Signal
All three replays share a common feature: active suppression by established interests. In M31's framework, this is the most powerful contrarian indicator.
The healthcare paradigm shift exhibits exactly the suppression patterns that drove M31's early Bitcoin and Ethereum success:
| Suppression Pattern | Crypto (Validated) | Healthcare (Current) |
|---|---|---|
| Regulatory attack | SEC lawsuits, exchange shutdowns | FDA rejection of MDMA, Schedule I classification |
| Banking exclusion | Debanking of crypto companies | Cannabis & psychedelic companies unbanked |
| Incumbent opposition | "Bitcoin is a fraud" — Jamie Dimon | Pharma lobbying against alternatives |
| Media dismissal | "Bitcoin obituaries" (400+ times) | "Alternative medicine is pseudoscience" |
| Incentive misalignment | Banks had no revenue from crypto | Pharma profit = chronic management, not cures |
| Then the flip | ETFs approved → banks want in | Govts realize tax revenue > pharma lobbying spend |
"They didn't want to sell cannabis until all of a sudden there's some tipping point where once they've got enough skin in the game, they realize actually we can make a lot of money selling cannabis versus it's disruptive to our current [business]."
"Now shocker. Exact same thing with Bitcoin. Banks were like, no, no, no. No skin in the game. No incentive to support it. Now an ETF. And then it's like now we get product around this."
Track when the incentive flips. That's the tipping point. For psilocybin: quantify for government that tax revenue + reduced healthcare costs > pharma lobbying opposition.
X. Investment Map
Three evolutionary replays create a comprehensive investment landscape. Infrastructure over applications—the same principle that drove DeFi returns.
Replay I: Programmable Biology Infrastructure
Replay II: Psychedelic Therapy Infrastructure
Replay III: Health Optimization Infrastructure
"What is healing?" → Body is programmable → Invest in programmable biology infrastructure
"How do treatments enter the mainstream?" → Cannabis template → Invest in psilocybin infrastructure before demand
"What is health?" → Optimization, not absence of disease → Invest in prevention/optimization infrastructure
Same method every time: ask the fundamental question, study the historical precedent, identify where the new paradigm is in the sequence, invest in infrastructure for what inevitably comes next.